Current Client Conversations & Presidential Politics

This is my reflection on conversations that I have had with clients over the past week that I believe gives you a grasp of those relationships with roughly 120 clients we work with. 

 One topic that came up multiple times is how people are delaying significant decisions because of presidential politics.  Please do not do this. 

 First, both from Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sach research I regularly review, as well as articles in the popular press, there is no documented long term impact who is in the White House has with the stock market.  Anecdotally, I’ve been in this business during the Reagan, H.W. Bush, Clinton, W. Bush, Obama, Trump, and of course Biden Administrations.  All have had good and bad stock market periods. 

 Also, remember interest rates probably matter more that Presidential Administrations because most stock valuation equations have interest rates in the denominator, so when rates go down, all things being equal, stocks should theoretically go up.  The FOMC, who manages short term rates is an independent agency of the US Government. 

So, please, turn down the noise!  Base those decisions on something other than presidential politics and make them. If there is something else that requires a delay, great, but don’t do it fearing who will be in the White House next. 

Thanks,  

Mike